New Algorithm Working

It’s hard to type right now as I get a visual reminder of the mosquito bites that I have every time I look down at my swollen hand.  I was paranoid when I first got to Bali; bathing in natural insect repellent, sleeping with clothes in bed, and always being ready to kill any intruders.  Now that I’ve relaxed into the environment, the bugs have started to get the better of me. The same is true for the gluten-free treats…. I’ve indulged a bit much lately.  Not completely off the rails, and I am continuously getting in better shape, but I need to clean up the lifestyle a little.

 

I had a fun weekend going to the W hotel for a gym member’s going-away brunch, and then a swanky tasting-menu dinner at a restaurant called Bikini.  They had drink pairings with the tasting menu, which I split, and realized it was the first alcohol I’ve had in almost a month.  I woke up today wondering why I felt like I’d gotten into a UFC cage match… and then I remembered having the booze.  I didn’t drink that much or get drunk, but it’s crazy how alcohol can quietly degrade my health, especially when I’m living so healthy otherwise. 

 

My girlfriend had another guest visiting this week who leaves tomorrow.  It feels like we’ve been entertaining people more days this year than being alone!  It’s a good issue to have, and I think we’re doing a better job of getting work done.  Everyone wants to go to the beach, the good restaurants, go out, etc., and no matter how much you try to subtly hint that this is your normal life, and that you aren’t on vacation, it’s hard to say no.  It helps that I have a co-working office to escape to during the day, but wanting to stay home and read/watch something in the evenings is difficult.  One great thing here in Bali is that the gyms are so good.  Everyone who has visited us has tried our gym, and ended up wanting to go multiple times again.  This helps as they can (somewhat) understand that we don’t want to finish every night with alcohol.  I never understand why people want to drink every occasion that they are gone from home, it’s almost like going to a new place in the world is really just an excuse to indulge in alcoholism?  I think in the future both of us have to act a little more like normal people who have daily schedules, just the same as when we visit friends and they only have evenings free for dinners/ hang out on the weekends.  I’m personally totally fine with that, but I understand most people want 24/7 tour guides if we make it available.  

 

In my previous blog I mentioned that I was a day away from launching my new super-algorithm… and I was right!  Since that day I’ve made dozens of tweaks and changes, but as of 2 minutes ago (I’ve been running experiments in the background while writing this) I finally changed the amount of money I was using from test money (I made $45 or so over the past few days, which I’m grateful for, but it won’t keep me in the almond-milk latte lifestyle that I’ve grown accustomed to) to real money.

 

It’s a weird feeling having something working after months of research.  A few months ago I had nothing but a vague unsettling notion that I was missing something, and that I needed to level-up the sophistication of my entire trading operation.  I had no clue how or where things were going to lead to, what my next steps should be, or if I was delusional about my chances of success.  I still have piles of notes of other things to research and try, including many things that build upon what I have working now, but I actually have something new and fancy running that I feel confident about (as confident as you can be in the financial markets, which always keeps you paranoid that you might be missing something).

 

The past few months of work have been about getting through the next micro-step, going blindly in the wrong direction, and coming back and questioning everything.  Last night I realized that now I’m finally past the phase of being in the weeds, and need to go back to the bigger picture to figure out what’s next.  One massive thing is that my new work is automated with programs, and I don’t have to wake up in the middle of the night to make adjustments, shut it down while I fly, etc.  That’s been a real suck of my life energy the past few years, probably more than I realized.  I plan to continue to develop strategies that I can trust to run on their own and allow me to sleep comfortably at night. I also realize it’s important to develop strategies that I enjoy.  I would go for any strategy if I thought it had a high expected value, but in general most things don’t work until you put so many hours of effort (and continue to) that it should be something that you find fun.  I like it when I have a strategy that trades somewhat frequently.  There are more patient strategies that work too, but I get bored and nervous that something could go wrong with a once in a while trade.  There’s a gambling aspect of trading (you just hope you’re gambling like a casino owner and not a player) that can be either embraced or stress you.  I like to wake up and see the action from the night before; it’s a little jolt of fun to start the day.  I hate to look at results more than a few times a day though.  Nothing worse for my well-being than recalculating winnings/losses repeatedly.

 

With that I’ll get back to my big-picture work for the week, and allow you to get back to more important things than my random ramblings.  Leaving you with some pictures from the W in Seminyak, Bali.

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